Local Governments Gear Up for Q4 Growth Measures to Hit Annual Economic Targets

• News
• 2024-11-02

Recently, multiple regions including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Gansu, Hainan, and Hebei have convened meetings to analyze the current economic situation and deploy key tasks for the fourth quarter. They have proposed specific measures focusing on major projects and stimulating consumer potential, especially in light of the recent package of incremental policies introduced by the state, and have studied and proposed supporting measures.

As of October 24th, more than ten provinces such as Fujian, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have released their economic data for the first three quarters. Gansu and Chongqing's GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 6.0%, while Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Hubei, and other places had GDP growth rates above 5.5%.

The fourth quarter is a crucial period and a sprint towards achieving the annual economic development goals. With the release of the economic data for the first three quarters, localities are accelerating the deployment of key tasks for the fourth quarter, aligning with the annual target tasks, and striving to boost the economy with all their might. Among these, further expanding domestic demand remains a top priority. The fourth quarter is a peak season for production and consumption, and many places have proposed to fully promote the implementation of "two heavy" and "two new" policies, tapping into the potential of effective demand.

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Focusing on promoting consumption, Zhejiang proposed to fully stimulate the recovery of consumption and the service industry, to effectively utilize the "two new" policies, to seize the "golden period" of consumption in the fourth quarter, to significantly boost the consumption of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and other bulk goods, and to actively create "hit" products in the cultural and tourism industry. Shandong Province recently issued a document to increase the subsidy for home appliance replacement, providing a 15% subsidy for individual consumers purchasing eight types of home appliances with energy efficiency or water efficiency standards of level 2 or above, and an additional 5% subsidy for products with energy efficiency or water efficiency standards of level 1 or above.

In terms of investment, relevant officials from the National Development and Reform Commission recently introduced that the project list of the "two 100 billion yuan" advance batch has been issued according to procedures. Among them, there are 121 "two heavy" construction projects driving a total investment of about 880 billion yuan, and 526 central budget investment plan projects driving a total investment of about 930 billion yuan. Efforts will be made to accelerate the start and construction of projects, striving to form physical work volume as soon as possible within the year.

Guangdong proposed to fully leverage the role of incentive policies such as "two heavy," to make good use of special funds such as special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, to accelerate the construction and efficiency of projects, and at the same time to plan a batch of major projects with strong driving force. Guizhou proposed to accelerate the disbursement and use of various funds, to plan and reserve projects, and to grasp the preliminary work.

"Entering the fourth quarter, the recently introduced package of incremental stimulus policies will significantly improve the situation of insufficient effective demand," said Lian Ping, Dean of the Guangkai Chief Industrial Research Institute. In recent months, the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has had a significant effect on boosting durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances. Its positive effects will further emerge, promoting the acceleration of consumption growth, and the primary driving force of consumption in economic growth will continue to be consolidated. In terms of investment, in addition to accelerating the issuance speed of special bonds and special treasury bonds in the fourth quarter, the driving effect of infrastructure investment led by the government will also be further enhanced.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Orient Jincheng, also said that looking forward to the fourth quarter, with the "package of incremental policies" taking effect, there will be improvements in both the supply and demand sides of the macroeconomy to varying degrees. Against the backdrop of the new round of growth-stabilizing policies in the fourth quarter, it is expected that there is still room for consumption promotion policies to be intensified; fiscal policy in the fourth quarter will increase support for infrastructure investment, including the advance issuance of 100 billion yuan of central budget investment plan and 100 billion yuan of "two heavy" construction project list for next year within the year, and forming work volume before the end of the year, it is expected that infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter will further accelerate.

The package of incremental policies recently introduced by the central government plans to accelerate the implementation of major reform measures, including the release of a new version of the negative list for market access and increasing efforts to attract and stabilize investment. While localities are tapping into the potential of effective demand, they are also actively promoting a series of reform measures to fully stimulate development potential and enhance regional economic vitality with a longer-term perspective. Jiangsu proposed to accelerate the implementation of reform measures such as "zeroing out" foreign investment access restrictions in the manufacturing sector and expanding the opening up of the service industry, focusing on green electricity supply and carbon footprint management to further optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of signed foreign investment projects, and encourage reinvestment of profits by foreign enterprises. Zhejiang proposed to fully consolidate the good momentum of foreign trade exports, actively explore new models of foreign trade, accelerate the cultivation of new drivers of foreign trade, and vigorously promote the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce.

"With the continuous effect of existing policies and the package of incremental policies, the vitality and momentum of development will be further released, and there is enough support for the continuous recovery and improvement of the economy in the fourth quarter, and it is expected that the annual target tasks can be well completed," said a relevant official of the National Development and Reform Commission in a recent interview with Xinhua News Agency.