Amidst the剧烈震荡 of the global financial markets, the precious metals market has not been spared.
On August 6th, most of the domestic commodity futures market opened lower, with precious metals leading the decline. The Shanghai Gold 2410 main contract fluctuated downwards during the session, reporting 559.94 yuan/gram at the time of writing, down 1.28%. The Shanghai Silver 2412 main contract saw a larger drop, reporting 7017 yuan/kilogram, down 4.07%.
On Monday, COMEX gold futures closed at 2452.1 USD/ounce, down 1.37%; COMEX silver futures closed at 27.36 USD/ounce, with a drop reaching 4.62%.
Xia Yingying, a non-ferrous analyst at Nanhua Futures, analyzed to Yicai that the current international gold prices are in a historical high range, with a complex interplay of market forces and increased volatility.
The unexpected improvement in the US ISM service sector PMI data reflects that the actual US economy does not support the logic of a recession, and the unusual movements in the capital markets have intensified the panic sentiment in the financial markets.
Macro-wise, the latest data released by the US Department of Labor shows that the US unemployment rate in July reached 4.3%, up from 4.1%, which was below market expectations; non-farm employment population growth was 114,000, the lowest record since December 2020, and far below the expected 175,000.
Advertisement
Additionally, the US July ISM manufacturing index was 46.8, against expectations of 48.8, with the June previous value at 48.5, showing a decline in new orders and output, and employment population recorded the largest drop in four years.
Xia Yingying believes that the significant increase in the unemployment rate in the US non-farm employment report has triggered recession concerns. Gold has seen increased short-term volatility and panic selling pressure, and in the later stage, attention should be paid to changes in the yen exchange rate, changes in Japanese and European and American stock markets, as well as statements from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve.
From the perspective of changes in fund holdings, since the third quarter, the overall investment demand for gold and silver in the US market has improved. On Monday, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.57 tons to 844.9 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14,271.88 tons, showing investors' cautious attitude.
Jinyuan Futures analysis believes that after the market's panic sentiment is somewhat released, the prices of gold and silver may be somewhat repaired. However, the current risks have not been resolved, and the market may continue to maintain high volatility.Therefore, it is suggested that investors either wait and see or hold a light position, and make plans after the market sentiment stabilizes.
Liu Shikai from Zhaojin Refining believes that in the short term, the international gold price may maintain a high-level wide range fluctuation. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts and conflicts in the Middle East provide support for the rise, concerns about a recession in the US economy and pressure on commodities suppress the gold price.
The decline in speculative net long positions in the market also reflects a cautious market attitude, which may weaken the upward momentum.